Without US, progress still possible (Article in China Daily)

Role: author

Full text
The retreat by the White House from the international sustainability debate could free rest of the world to find solution to daunting environmental challenges

There was an unprecedented outcry from many leading sustainability experts - especially in the United States - when Donald J. Trump was elected as president. Several challenges exist, but his lack of understanding when it comes to climate science and other environmental challenges, as demonstrated during the campaign process, is deeply troubling.

There are many other difficult challenges, but from a global perspective there could also be a number of interesting opportunities. If the next US government continues with the campaign's disrespect for science, lack of interest in climate change, reluctance to engage in global challenges, etc., the US will find itself isolated.

Such a situation presents an opportunity - one could argue a responsibility - for countries like China to take on a much more active role in global sustainability.

Before we consider the opportunities, let's remember that while the US is still a very important country, it is still only one among many on the planet. US influence is also dwindling as a new generation of countries are emerging (and re-emerging) on the global scene.

So, in some ways Trump's lack of interest in global sustainability issues could provide a situation similar to the one we would be likely to face anyway in a few years, where global leadership will come from outside the US.

It is easy to forget that more than 7 billion people, 94 percent, of the global population, are living outside the US. Even from an economic perspective, 75 (nominal) or 87 (PPP) percent of the global economy is found outside the US.

Given the current situation, the world is likely to be presented with an opportunity for significant improvements on a global level in three areas.

First is the role of science in society. There is a significant opportunity for the rest of the world to strengthen the status and role of science. There is now room for a global science initiative with a huge budget and a mandate to begin the work to create new institutions. Such an initiative could be launched by the G20 and include all interested countries. This initiative could explore how we can increase collaboration around key future issues, from space exploration to the next generation of particle accelerators.

Equally important is to strengthen the level of general education in society. Here, the media, both old and new, have a significant role to play. For the first time in human history, we could see a global science initiative by all major news organizations around the world.

To ensure engagement from the younger generation, stakeholders like the Kahn Academy and leading science communicators, such as Derek Muller of Veritasium and video journalist Brady Haran, could help develop new ways of communicating science and support global scientific education.

Not only is scientific knowledge important for many future jobs, it is increasingly important to understand the world as a citizen. Without an understanding of science, the assumptions, methodologies, probability estimations, uncertainty, global challenges like climate change and pandemics are difficult to understand.

Second is global governance. With the withdrawal of the United States, the rest of the world could potentially see the first attempt at real global governance. This might be the most significant opportunity from a long-term perspective. We need to move from an international to a global perspective; we need to move from a reactive to a proactive agenda; we need to move from global competition to global collaboration. Perhaps most important, we need to move beyond an international perspective to a global perspective because members of the next generation see themselves as global citizens to a much larger degree than today.

The urgent need to work together as a global community to solve global sustainability challenges has never been greater. There are at least 12 global risks that threaten human civilization, and it is only a matter of time before the old structures need to be replaced or fundamentally reformed if we are to avoid a global catastrophe. When structures fundamentally change, old stakeholders tend to cling on to what they have. With the US potentially becoming uninterested in proactive global governance, the probability for a smooth transition might now be higher than it ever will be.

Third is city collaboration. For many issues we need concrete action all around the world. Climate change, for example, requires that emissions all around the world must be reduced, and that must start now.

Slow progress in international multilateral negotiations so far will only be slower with a reluctant US. However, much of the actual implementation falls on local governments, mainly cities. New tools for city collaboration should be a global priority, as this could accelerate the uptake of sustainable solutions as well as strengthen global collaboration.

In all three areas above, China has a leading role to play. China is one of the most, if not the most, science-driven society on the planet. Few governments have the scientific skill set or culture that China has. Its society is also supported by media, including initiatives like ScienceNet. It's a population that has significant understanding and respect for science.

China, together with other emerging countries, has also made significant progress when it comes to new international financial institutions. The G20 presidency demonstrated China's capacity and interest in long-term global policy-making.

In China, there are also several leading cities, such as Baoding, Hebei province, that are already leading providers of sustainable solutions. The country's network of low-carbon cities could become a core part of a global network of zero-carbon cities with global exports.

In conclusion, we are likely to see some significant challenges and frictions over the coming years, but we should not ignore the unique opportunities for historic changes that lie before us.

The author is the founder of 21st Century Frontiers in Sweden. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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Zero-Carbon Transition Index (ZTI) 2016

Role: author

Summary
As the world moves into implementation of the Paris agreement, an agreement that is notoriously vague even by international environmental agreements standards, it is important to understand the broader context for a transition to a zero-carbon society. One of the most important factors that will decide the outcome of the Paris agreement is the kind of stakeholder that will influence the international agenda.

There are many ways that different stakeholders can influence the international agenda in many different ways, but based on historic experience international media, leading policy makers, key academic institutions, international organizations, etc. will act very much in line with the companies that are the most powerful and the agenda they promote.1 These companies does not only have significant investments in R&D and enormous PR /lobby budgets, they are also overrepresented in key fora, including industry groups and agenda-setting processes such as OECD, B20, and WEF.

Currently, and perhaps surprisingly, the domination by pro-fossil companies among the world’s top-50 companies is record high. The situation today is even worse than back in 1996, when the Kyoto protocol was negotiated. In other words, 20 years of negotiations, discussions and actions to reduce global carbon emissions have failed to deliver a new generation of proactive zero-carbon companies on the same scale as the old fossil companies. What we have today is a situation when the top-50 companies on the planet are dominated by fossil friendly companies on an unprecedented scale.

The zero-carbon transition index (ZTI) is a tool to enhance transparency regarding how biggest companies on the planet are likely to use their influence. The ZTI uses the revenue data from Fortune Global 500 to select the top-50 companies in the world as measured by revenue.2 These companies are then divided into five categories depending on how they invest, communicate and lobby with regards to the greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change.

The five categories are “very obstructive”, “obstructive”, “neutral”, “supportive”, and “very supportive”. The companies in the category very obstructive are given the value -100, the obstructive -50, the neutral 0, the supportive +50, and the very supportive +100. The values are added together and then divided by the total number of companies to get the ZTI.

The ZTI for 1996 was -38, for 2008 -27 and now for 2015 it is -39.

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Beijing’s plan shows path to the future (article China Daily)

Role: author

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Unhampered by old vested interests, the 13th Five-Year Plan is a good guide for how the world can support global sustainability

Different parts of China's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) have been discussed intensively in recent months. Now, after the National People's Congress has approved the plan, it is time to put the full final document in a global context.

This five-year plan is probably one of the most important documents on the planet when it comes to long-term global security and sustainability. There are many aspects that deserve further elaboration, but three parts are of particular importance for governments, companies and NGOs around the world that want to support global sustainability.

Before discussing the three key sustainability areas of the plan, a historic perspective is needed to fully understand its importance.

From a Chinese perspective, this might be the most important five-year plan ever. For all previous plans, China could draw on inspiration from other countries. Now, China is moving so fast into uncharted territories that it is hard to use any country as inspiration to any significant degree. The transition from an old industrial economy to a new and sustainable service economy also requires the kind of systemic overview that the plan provides.

From a global perspective, this is also a unique five-year plan. If implemented successfully, the 13th Five-Year Plan would position China as the global leader when it comes to the next economic revolution. On the research side, it is now on the same level as the European Union, Japan and the United States. But when it comes to actually ensuring implementation for the transition, the five-year plan is ahead and is a global reference document.

This leadership when it comes to strategies for implementation is not because China has better experts, but rather because its planning processes are not held back by old vested interests in the same way as in Western countries. The result is a strategy in which, instead of setting the old economy against the new, China focuses on how the old industries can help and be helped in the transition to the connected and sustainable service economy.

From a global perspective, three areas are especially important to support and ensure positive development in China that will be crucial for global sustainability.

First, promote new business models that support sustainability. These new models will be based on concepts such as connectivity, sharing, circular economy, networked solutions, transformative transparency, and global sustainability. For new business models to be sustainable they must deliver solutions that are so resource efficient that 10 billion people or more can use the service without destroying the planet.

Such solutions tend to require new clusters of companies, and these need support. Among the actions needed in China and abroad are a review of current incentive structures, new guidance for public procurement, smarter taxation, and a review of old laws that today support old unsustainable companies while holding back new sustainable clusters of companies. New business models often are much more resource efficient, using information and communication technology together with new materials and robotic solutions, so it is important that the benefits are shared within society. If sharing is not ensured, inequity on the national and international levels is likely to explode, given already unsustainable levels today.

Second, open international innovation platforms for global public goods should be established. Support for the establishment of a permanent international coordinating body for global public goods is one important aspect. It could also include strategic support for smart city development in China that supports an accelerated uptake of a new generation of sustainable solutions around the world.

Third, it is time to ensure that we can turn global catastrophic risks into drivers for innovation. There are already a number of challenges, such as climate change, biodiversity loss and nuclear weapons where better collaboration is needed. But there are also emerging challenges in areas such as nanotechnology, synthetic biology and artificial intelligence. All these areas have many things in common and a coordinated approach is needed. The sooner it can begin the better.

As acknowledged in the five-year plan, the transition from an old industrial economy based on traditional drivers to a new service economy based on new drivers will be difficult and sometimes painful. However, there is no realistic alternative. The old economy is destroying the planet and is not resource efficient enough to allow the approximately 10 billion people that will live on the planet by 2100 to live a good life.

Action in the three areas above will not cost very much, but will be crucial to secure a strategic transition to a sustainable economic system globally and establish a new generation of international collaboration. The international support for global sustainability that the 13th Five-Year Plan can deliver must begin now.

The author is an entrepreneur and founder of 21st Century Frontiers in Sweden. He works with companies, governments and NGOs as a strategic economic, technology and innovation adviser. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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12 Risks that threaten human civilisation (Report)

Role: author with Stuart Armstrong

Summary
This is a report about a limited number of global risks that pose a threat to human civilisation, or even possibly to all human life.

With such a focus it may surprise some readers to nd that the report’s essential aim is to inspire action and dialogue as well as an increased use of the methodologies used for risk assessment. The real focus is not on the almost unimaginable impacts of the risks the report outlines. Its fundamental purpose is to encourage global collaboration and to use this new category of risk as a driver for innovation.

The idea that we face a number of global challenges threatening the very basis of our civilisation at the beginning of the 21st century is well accepted in the scientific community, and is studied at a number of leading universities.I However, there is still no coordinated approach to address this group of challenges and turn them into opportunities.

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From a risk perspective the most important in the new IPCC reports are numbers that are not included, i.e > 4 °C (Paper)

Role: author

Summary
GCF welcomes the new AR5 summary for policy makers (SPM) from WGII on Impacts, Adaptation, and vulnerability, and from WGIII on Mitigation as scientifically indisputable and therefore incredibly robust reports that clearly show how serious the impacts for humanity would be already at 2 °C warming, and the devastating impacts at a 4 °C warming. They furthermore clearly show the urgency for global concerted collaboration in order to ensure a world transition to a low-carbon world economy by 2050, only 36 years away.

GCF in particular welcomes that WGII and WGIII emphasise that “assessment of the widest possible range of potential impacts, including low-probability outcomes with large consequences, is central to understanding the benefits and tradeoffs of alternative risk management actions”1, and that “risks associated with the full range of outcomes are relevant to the assessment of mitigation” 2.

While WGII clearly state the need to assess low-probability high-impact outcomes there is no information included about impacts beyond a 4 °C warming. This is unfortunate as the WGI report showed that already 450 ppm concentration can result in more than a 4 °C warming. Similarly, WGIII emphasizes the necessity to consider risks associated with extreme climate change and in particular low probability high impact “tipping points” that could trigger new climate regimes

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Meetings and mobility in the 2000s (Feasibility study)

Role: author with support from Jeanette Hemmingsson (SIC) and Annika Bondesson (SIC)

Summary
This feasibility study proposes the creation of a web-portal for optimised meetings and mobility. By using new information technology in an easy to understand way that helps government agencies to make strategic choices based on scientific fact, a portal of this kind will contribute to significantly more efficient and less expensive meetings. The portal could also contribute to achieving the environmental objectives formulated by the Government and the EU.

The procurement investigation (Swedish Government Official Reports 2013:12) has identified meetings and mobility as an area where there are many new opportunities and where the goals require transformative changes.1 The starting point for the procurement investigation was that the coming years will involve major changes for government agencies. Technological development, for example, provides entirely new opportunities in a range of areas, from virtual meetings to tools that make it easier to analyse the consequences of different choices. At the same time, the government and the EU's ambitious goals when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions require transformative solutions.

The feasibility study indicates that the portal could contribute to more transformative solutions that can help government agencies to optimise their meetings and mobility. This could allow the government agencies to achieve their goals and reduce their costs by, among other things;

1. That government agencies receive scientifically verified data when it comes to various environmental and economic consequences of the meetings.

2. That government agencies can obtain customised information when they need it in the format they require.

3. That the platform can connect to existing initiatives at the government agencies and build on existing systems for the collection of data enabling the platform to reduce the workload of the agencies.

4. The platform makes it easier to develop strategies for an increased share of virtual meetings.

5. Creating a better understanding of all the elements of an agency by allowing customised information to be generated can clarify the consequences of individual choices.

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Offentlig upphandling: Möten och mobilitet på 2000-talet (Förstudie)

Role: author with support from Jeanette Hemmingsson (SIC) and Annika Bondesson (SIC)

Summary
Denna förstudie föreslår att en portal för optimerade möten och mobilitet etableras. Genom att använda ny teknik som på ett lättförståeligt sätt underlättar för myndigheter att göra strategiska val baserade på vetenskapliga fakta kan en sådan portal bidra till betydligt effektivare och billigare möten. Portalen skulle även kunna bidra till att de miljömål som regeringen och EU formulerat uppnås.

Upphandlingsutredningen identifierade möten och mobilitet som ett område där många nya möjligheter finns och där mål finns som kräver transformativa förändringar. Utgångspunkten för upphandlingsutredningen var att de kommande åren innebär mycket stora förändringar för myndigheter. Teknikutvecklingen ger t.ex. helt nya möjligheter inom en rad områden, från virtuella möten till verktyg som gör det lättare att analysera konsekvenserna av olika val. Samtidigt har regeringen och EU ambitiösa mål då det gäller minskade utsläpp av växthusgaser som gör att transformativa lösningar krävs.

Förstudien indikerar att portalen skulle kunna bidra till fler transformativa lösningar som kan hjälpa statliga myndigheter att optimera möten och mobilitet. Detta skulle kunna resultera i att myndigheterna kan uppnå sina miljömål och sänka sina omkostnader genom bl.a.

1. Att myndigheter får vetenskapligt verifierade underlag då det gäller olika miljömässiga och ekonomiska konsekvenser av möten.

2. Att myndigheter kan få skräddarsydd information när de behöver det i det format som de önskar.

3. Att plattformen kan knyta an till existerande initiativ på myndigheter och bygga på existerande system för insamlande av data vilket gör att plattformen minskar arbetsbördan för myndigheter.

4. Att plattformen gör det enklare att utveckla strategier för en ökad andel virtuella möten.

5. Att skapa en ökad förståelse inom alla delar av en myndighet genom att skräddarsydd information kan genereras som tydliggör konsekvenserna av enskilda val.

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From green savings to green profit: Moving towards a 21st century green business model (Article in Economy China)

Role: author

Comment
As I saw how the old CSR perspective from the west undermined interesting work in China I spent some time trying to explain that the reactive/ 0-approach tended to take the company into a dead-end where they did not focus on what society needed, but how they could communicate a zero-impact (often though offsetting). if they wanted to use sustinability as a driver for innovation they needed to take another path. 

Summary
The last years leading companies around the world have begun to shift focus. From only working on their internal environmental problems, they now focus on how they can help provide the solutions the world needs and how their business models can change from a focus on products to the services needed in society.

The reason behind this change is that incremental improvements are not enough, new markets are growing, smart solutions are ready at the same time as we understand the need for transformative solutions. The 21st century company must focus on new green business models that deliver sustainable services and have CEO’s that take the lead.

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迈向二十一世纪的绿色商业模式 从专注节能环保到寻求绿色利润 (Article in Economy China)

Role: author

Summary: 

过去的几年，世界各地领先企业的关注 点都在悄然地发生着变化。不同于过去只关 注内部的环境问题，当今的企业正在专注于 如何提供符合世界市场需求的解决方案，以 及企业自身的商业模式如何从关注产品转变 为关注于社会所需要的服务。

产生如此变化是基于以下几点原因:其 一、原有改善速度过慢;其二、新市场的不 断增长;其三、智能解决方案已准备就绪; 以及我们理解了对变革性解决方案的需求。 21世纪的企业必须着眼于可提供可持续服务 的新型绿色商业模式，而且其领导者必须起 到引领作用。

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Public procurement and transformative solutions: A migration strategy for India’s procurement in the 21st century (Report)

Role: author with Sachin Joshi

Summary: 
This report is an outcome of thought-leadership collaboration between stakeholders in India and Sweden that seeks to spur momentum to ensure innovative and global sustainable development through the mainstreaming of transformative solutions.

The collaboration is based on two national public procurement projects, one in India and one in Sweden. The objective is to explore ways that allow public procurement to deliver economic development, innovation, poverty reduction and global environmental sustainability by supporting transformative solutions. 

The migration strategies include the following elements:
• Establishment of a “migration bridge”: To allow an organization in a structured way to move from current procurement to a situation where they rethink what they need. To ensure that this happens it is important to clarify responsibility within the organization, when in time as well as where in the organization it is best to move from refining current procurement to also re-thinking the way services can be provided.

• A change of reference point: To ensure that use of new transformative solutions is the reference, not current unsustainable practices.

• Cluster support: To encourage new groups of companies to deliver the solutions that are needed.

• Clear goals: To support transparency, identification of best practice as well as evaluation.

• A global perspective: To promote a perspective where transformative solutions can be used by those most in need.

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Transformativa lösningar och offentlig upphandling (Report)

Role: author

Summary
Denna text är en slutredovisning av arbetet med att analysera hur offentlig upphandling kan stödja innovation för hållbarhet som levererar transformativa lösningar.

Arbetet utgår från tre grundfrågor:

• Hur kan innovation för hållbarhet ges bättre stöd inom befintligt regelverk för offentlig upphandlingen?

• Hur kan myndighetsvärlden engagera olika delar av företagsvärlden i proaktiva

  samtal kring hur viktiga hållbarhetsproblem kan lösas?

• Hur kan myndigheter via upphandlingen bli ”early adopters” och inte ”laggards” som håller utvecklingen tillbaka då det gäller användandet av transformativa hållbara lösningar?

  Metoden utifrån insamlat material och föreslår möjliga vägar framåt. Texten är baserad på textanalyser, intervjuer, två workshops, en enkät och ett pilotprojekt.

The procurement investigation (Swedish Government Official Reports 2013:12) has identified meetings and mobility as an area where there are many new opportunities and where the goals require transformative changes.1 The starting point for the procurement investigation was that the coming years will involve major changes for government agencies. Technological development, for example, provides entirely new opportunities in a range of areas, from virtual meetings to tools that make it easier to analyse the consequences of different choices. At the same time, the government and the EU's ambitious goals when it comes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions require transformative solutions.

The feasibility study indicates that the portal could contribute to more transformative solutions that can help government agencies to optimise their meetings and mobility. This could allow the government agencies to achieve their goals and reduce their costs by, among other things;

1. That government agencies receive scientifically verified data when it comes to various environmental and economic consequences of the meetings.

2. That government agencies can obtain customised information when they need it in the format they require.

3. That the platform can connect to existing initiatives at the government agencies and build on existing systems for the collection of data enabling the platform to reduce the workload of the agencies.

4. The platform makes it easier to develop strategies for an increased share of virtual meetings.

5. Creating a better understanding of all the elements of an agency by allowing customised information to be generated can clarify the consequences of individual choices.

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Norway and global leadership in the 21st Century: Supporting transformative low carbon ICT solutions (Report)

Role: authour

Summary
Main conclusions regarding Norway’s domestic situation:
+      World-class connectivity.
+      IT interested population.
+      Well functioning communication between ministries and sectors.
+      World leading use and development of many low-carbon ICT solutions.
+      Vision of a zero carbon and innovative future.
+      “Leading” in many macro trends, such as ICT literacy, aging, understanding of the need to shift from a natural resource based economy to a service economy.

-       Focus almost exclusively on the supply-side when it comes to low-carbon solutions, with additional focus on incremental improvements within existing systems. Very little focus on transformative solutions that can be used by 9 billion people, i.e. the future we are heading towards.
-       While there is a broad agreement on the need to move towards a zero carbon future with transformative solutions, few concrete work plans exist to implement such solutions.
-       While communication is well functioning and friendly between ministries actual collaboration around transformative projects is often lacking, making transformative solutions that require cross sectorial/ministry collaboration difficult to implement.  Instead much of the focus is on incremental improvements within current areas of responsibility.
-       The policies and targets for climate change and CO2 reductions still focus on addressing problems, not creating solutions.
-       There is lack of clarity in terms of where the responsibility lies for low-carbon ICT support or transformative solutions as this is spread over a number of ministries. Ministries responsible for different ICT aspects have an understanding of the potential, but the Ministry of Environment has not moved beyond “sector by sector” and problem oriented approaches, and current goals are focusing on incremental CO2 reductions.

Much of the above could change fast, for example in the fall of 2011 when a new climate policy for Norway might be presented, but today there is a rapidly growing tension in Norway between “the first-generation of environmentalism” and what could be described as an emerging “second-generation of environmentalism”.  

The first-generation identified problems, especially polluting companies, and tried to address the problem through incremental improvements within existing systems and through end-of-pipe solutions using a national perspective. The second-generation focuses on transformative solutions, especially solution clusters, with new and innovative ways of providing services. The perspective of the second-generation of environmentalism is global and the definition of sustainable is that the service can be provided in a sustainable way for nine billion people. The second-generation thus represents a shift away from incremental solutions within existing unsustainable systems.

The first generation is institutionalized though the bodies responsible for “environmental issues”. While many working with the first-generation of environmentalism intellectually understand the need for a shift towards a new approach and frequently arrange seminars, produce reports, etc about the second-generation of environmentalism, the focus (including targets and capacity) is almost exclusively on incremental CO2 reductions within existing sectors with a national focus.

Norway can be described as a world leader in the first-generation of environmentalism. This leadership seems to have resulted in a situation where those in charge of “environmental” issues are intellectually grasping the need for a new approach, but the structures, traditions, mandate, etc push them back to a first-generation approach.

Norway has great potential to become a world leader in the second-generation of environmentalism, building on many interesting initiatives. The challenges should however not be underestimated and Norway needs to think in terms of leapfrogging and making significant changes in the current organizational structures in order to be able to play a relevant international role in the second-generation of environmentalism.

Instead of a better car, the focus is on smart working, resulting in promotion of teleworking. Instead of better airplanes the focus is on smart meetings, resulting in promotion of videoconferencing. Instead of better paper production the focus is on smart reading, resulting in e-books. Instead of CCS the focus is on smart buildings that provide lighting, a comfortable temperature, etc while being net producers of renewable energy at the same time.

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Assessment of Global Low-Carbon and Environmental Leadership in the ICT Sector (Report)

Role: author with Simon Mingay

Summary

The information and communication technology (ICT) industry and its individual providers are at an important juncture. Are they really going to commit themselves to the necessary investments to develop low-carbon and environmental solutions during a period when, with some exceptions (such as energy-efficient ICT equipment, intelligent buildings and smart grids), the markets for any such solutions are at best emerging? We look at which providers are placing their bets and developing the capabilities that will make them effective innovation partners for enterprises and give them platforms for leadership in a low-carbon and more sustainable economy.

Key Findings

During 2009 and 2010, there has been rapid progress in the maturity of ICT vendors in terms of their internal environmental programs and in terms of the development of a set of low-carbon market offerings. The dominance of talking in 2008 has evolved into a lot more action in 2010 in terms of suitable products, services development and policy- related activity.

We now have a clear group of market makers (BT, IBM, Cisco, Ericsson, HP, Fujitsu and SAP) that we believe are beginning to build distinguishing capabilities.

The 2008 leaders, such as IBM, BT, Ericsson, Fujitsu and HP, have maintained their relatively strong positions with good, well-rounded low-carbon and environmental programs, improving their own internal performance, and developing market-facing solutions ranging from more-energy-efficient ICT equipment and mobile phone networks, through logistics and transportation, to solutions that enable smart grids.

Aside from the important task of making ICT equipment more energy efficient, and a couple of particularly hot areas such as smart grids, developing solutions for a low- carbon economy is definitely not yet "core business."

With a couple of exceptions, the industry is hobbled by the short-term incremental sustainability-related goals that it is setting for itself, rather than setting more- challenging, longer-term goals that could result in transformative solutions.

There are limited signs of disruptive innovation, and more of a focus on incrementalism.

The industry is fearful of committing its weight to influencing national and international climate change and sustainability policy; rather, it is standing on the sidelines as a cheerleader.

© 2010 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

The industry no longer predominantly sees climate change and sustainability as a risk, but sees it as an emerging opportunity.

Service and software providers have improved their positions from 2008, but remain relatively immature in terms of their internal programs and their market offerings. SAP would stand out as a relatively strong performer with big improvements in its internal programs, transparency, product development and road map.

Management of the environmental performance of the supply chain remains an area of significant differentiation, demanding much higher standards from everyone if the ICT industry is to credibly defend its position as a climate leader.

ICT providers in Asia (not Japan) are still lagging overall, but we have seen some dramatic improvements, and we would anticipate that continuing.

IT organizations still need to pay close attention to the balanced nature of the programs from IT providers, covering all areas of influence from direct, indirect and policy issues. We still see plenty of examples of providers with significant gaps in their programs.

Interindustry partnerships are starting to emerge, particularly from the leaders. For example, IBM and Johnson Controls developing intelligent building solutions. These partnerships are a very significant and important step in the ability of ICTs to develop commercially viable solutions for a low-carbon economy.

While the recent Global e-Sustainability Initiative (GeSI) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report outlining a high-level methodology for measuring the enabling effects of ICT related to the climate is a good step forward, the industry has so far only made a limited attempt at measuring the environmental benefits of its solutions, and has made no attempt at all to understand their systemic and rebound impacts. (That is, the indirect and frequently unforeseen change in behaviors, consumption patterns and so on, resulting from the introduction of new technologies, policy measures, etc.)

The industry continues to bask in the afterglow of the Smart 2020 report (www.smart2020.org), when it should really be moving that thinking forward at a much faster pace.

Link to report

Transformative Calculations: Calculating the impacts of transformative low-carbon solutions (Report)

Role: Lead author

Summary: 
This paper provides a brief overview of the possibilities for calculating and reporting a company’s positive contributions to societal emissions reductions.

Over the last few years, discussions and strategies have shifted from an exclusive focus on big emitters and the need to reduce emissions by improving existing systems, to also focus on providers of low-carbon solutions and transformative change whereby services are provided in totally new ways (such as modal shifts and dematerialization).

As a consequence the need for new reporting that can capture contributions from companies that provide solutions has emerged. The terminology is still under development, and the concepts are working names that have been used in the discussion related to the GHG-protocol and other systems for calculating emission reductions:

Total emissions approach: A focus on the total impact, both posi- tive and negative

Climate Positive: A company that helps reduce more emissions in society than it emits over the whole value chain, Scope 1-3

Low-carbon market opportunities: The emissions that a company can contribute to reducing in society through the use of the products/ services and that are outside Scope 1-3

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The revolution from pre-Kyoto to post-Copenhagen (Article)

Role: author

Summary
To understand the current situation and the opportunities ahead, it is important to understand the different approaches companies have to take for a low carbon development and what kind of behaviour that different organisations and incentive structures promote.

Four different levels of innovation can be identified, see Figure 4. The first level of low carbon innovation is when focus is on incremental improvements that reduce the company’s own problems. This is where most of the attention has been focused by policy makers, NGOs and businesses themselves. The reason for the focus is twofold: it is easily noticeable and understandable. When emissions are

discussed, people usually think about a coal power plant or just a chimney with smoke coming out. This focus makes sense for big polluters and only if incremental changes are needed.

The second level, which has got a lot of attention today, is incremental reductions through out the value chain, including all suppliers, starting from the extraction of material from nature and then also looking at the use-phase & end-use of the products. For most companies which are not the major emitters, it is in these parts where the majority of the emissions exist. Among IT companies, retailers, biotech companies and the manufacturing companies, up to 98% of the emissions cannot necessarily be associated with their own direct impact.

Still it is common for companies to aim for “climate neutral” and offset the emissions as they focus on level 1. This is a reason why offsetting might be one of the worst innovation killers today, keeping the companies on innovation level 1.

The third level is when the company acknowledge that the way they produce

things is not sustainable and instead of trying to improve unsustainable production methods, it develops solutions that become part of the solution. This can be a manufacturer of furniture that becomes a net producer of sustainable bio-energy, or a car manufacturer who builds so many wind power mills as it constructs its manufacturing plant & becomes a net producer to ensure that it puts more renewable energy on the grid than used.

The fourth level, and the most important level for the 21st century, is when the company starts to focus on what it is providing to society through its products and services. The question on this level is if the services the company provides are helping people getting a better life while helping to reduce emissions society2 then obviously the other levels are needed as well. But unless we get more companies to focus on how their core business is contributing to a low carbon economy, it will be impossible to reach the reductions needed.

Some people are afraid that focus on the core business, and solutions that company provides that can help reduce emissions in society, will distract them from the need to reduce their internal emissions. Looking at the companies that have begun to explore this area are almost leading in level 1-3 as well. Probably, because the companies that link low carbon development to their core business, requires a commitment from the CEO and the board. And if one wants to be the company that helps the customers towards a low carbon economy, it is not credible if the company has its own emissions. If anything is true, it is probably that many of the current initiatives that focus on internal emissions are distracting from effort on the higher innovation levels and not the other way around.

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From Workplace to Anyplace: Assessing the Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions With Virtual Meetings and Telecommuting (Report)

Role: Co-author with Marco Muttazzoni, Andrea Rossi and Suzanne Pahlman

Summary
This report focuses on the opportunities to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in work-related contexts, thanks to the deployment of IT solutions that enable one or more individuals to work or collaborate remotely. In particular the report analyzes the potential associated with teleworking and virtual meetings to reduce carbon emissions from daily commuting by car and business air travel, and the conditions under which such potential could be realized. The goal of the report is to gain an understanding of the scale of the opportunities available while identifying the key drivers that may enable or hinder the full achievement of such opportunities. By analyzing different trajectories of possible future developments, this report provides insight into a future in which maximum GHG emission reductions could be achieved.

The premise for the analysis is that IT is best seen as a catalyst that can either be used in ways that reduce our environmental footprint or can be deployed within systems that ultimately result in an increased environmental footprint. Because the policy and economic environment in which IT technology is deployed largely determines its net impact on GHG emissions, this report outlines four scenarios for possible future developments, characterized by different roles and attitudes in policy makers and IT industry

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Assessment of Global Low-Carbon and Environmental Leadership in the ICT Sector (Report)

Role: author with Simon Mingay

Summary
With increased pressure to reduce carbon emissions, enterprises are approaching this new situation in very different ways. Some are still struggling to assess their own business environmental and climate impact. Other enterprises approach the need to reduce carbon emissions among customers as an opportunity to move beyond their relatively smaller direct impact and also focus on the opportunity that low-carbon ICT services can provide. The difference in how companies approach the need for a low- carbon economy is creating a new corporate landscape where new winners and losers will emerge and where ICT customers must learn to navigate. This is an assessment of 24 of the industry's world-leading providers and an analysis of where the ICT industry is today in relation to its maturity in mitigating environmental risks and exploiting the opportunities that the need for reduced carbon emissions will create.

Key Findings

• 2008 has seen the emergence of some low-carbon "leaders" in the ICT industry. They are just starting to wake up to the risks and opportunities of climate change, and move beyond pushing a more energy-efficient device. However, on the whole, the industry has been sleepwalking toward a low-carbon economy. 2009 will see rapid progress.

• There is frequently more talking than there is action on behalf of the ICT providers. The results show those who need to make significant steps forward if their actions are to match their marketing.

• Some of the "self-professed" leaders in environmental performance have some significant weaknesses in their programs.

• Most providers still view "the environment" and "climate change" as a risk rather than as an opportunity.

• Most ICT technology providers have outsourced most, if not all, manufacturing. So looking at the vendors' performance is looking at the tip of the iceberg — which is further compounded by most of those vendors only looking at the environmental performance of their Tier 1 suppliers.

• Service organizations are quite immature in their environmental programs and their innovation for a low-carbon economy.

• There is a lack of interindustry partnerships to create innovative solutions to tackle high- carbon areas of the economy.

  © 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

• The vendors from Asia (not Japan) are still lagging behind but some have begun to put comprehensive programs in place, and it is likely that they will move rapidly to the front in this area, driven by the urgent needs for low-carbon solutions in their domestic markets.

• Fifteen of the 24 providers invited to participate did so, which is a good level of commitment from the industry. However, nine providers chose not to participate. With one exception, we believe that reflects their immaturity in environmental and low-carbon leadership.

• This is a rapidly changing area.

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保定/Baoding: A global “Electric Valley” for sustainable energy production? (Report)

Role: author with Rasmus Reinvang, Chen Dongmei, Stefan Henningsson, Hongpeng Lei, Li Junfeng, Ma Lingjuan, Liu Minglian, and Wang Ying

Comment
This is the simple version that does not look into the future and estimate the significant potential for Baoding to contribute to global GHG reduction from export of smart solutions. What is interesting is that these very significant contributions were still an underestimation. Still today Baoding is one of the few cities in the world that have estimated their global climate contribution though export of low-carbon solutions.  

Summary

China is the factory of the world providing us with a large variety of products at an affordable price. Lowering prices on renewable energy and energy efficiency products is also a key issue in our battle to mitigate climate change.

Baoding is recognized by the Chinese Government as a first and only industrial base for development of China’s new energy sector. The world needs a dramatic increase in renewable energy if we are to be able to secure a sustainable energy supply for the global economy and avoid dangerous climate change. Baoding is therefore a key to global sustainable development.

This is an introduction to Baoding providing an overview of Baoding’s rapid development, potential future role, some preliminary results and assessments, as background for a visit to Baoding by China Council (CCICED) and OECD embassies in Beijing.

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Creating the First Sustainable Innovation Zone: SIZ (Leaflet)

Role: Project supervisor

Summary
The Sustainable Innovation Zone, SIZ, is an internal HP web portal engaging employees to share ideas on ICT applications that can help reduce CO2 emissions. Rather than focusing on how HP can reduce its own environmen- tal impact, the SIZ focuses on how HP can help custo- mers reduce their carbon footprint by using HP solutions.

The SIZ promotes ICT applications that signi cantly reduce CO2 emissions, the use of resources and improve service quality.

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Re-think China's Outward Investment Flows (Report)

Role: Co-author with Baijin Long

Summary
Two hundred years ago, China was the largest economy on earth, and in a few decades, the country will most certainly reclaim that position. There can therefore be little doubt that the future of China will shape the global economy; the question is, in what direction?

This report sets out to examine one of the greatest challenges in the 21st century, namely, how to combine global economic development and a sustainable use of natural resources.

The objective is to encourage a constructive discussion regarding the rapidly increasing outward investment flows from China, from a global sustainability perspective. The report explores the roles of the different actors involved and the manner in which the underlying trends driving this outward investment can be directed to ensure sustainable resource use.

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